Alex heading into Mexico with 90mph winds
June 30, 2010
Hurricane Alex will make landfall this evening near Rancho Las Carreras later this evening. The most recent reports indicate movement due west at 11 knots. Hurricane Winds extend out as far as 70 miles in some areas, and TS winds 205 miles. Much of Southern Texas is already experiencing convective rain bands and gusty winds.
Radar rainfall estimates already indicate values in excess of 5 inches, and multiple tornado warnings have been issued in the region.
The main threats from this system will be the torrential rains and surge potential over the rest of the day and into early tomorrow.
Latest Conditions:
4:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 30
Location: 24.5°N 96.8°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
We will continue to monitor the system as it moves inland.
Alex first Atlantic hurricane of 2010 season
June 29, 2010
The 10:00 PM NHC Public Advisory officially upgrades Alex to hurricane strength. Observed sustained winds of 75 mph were recorded, with higher gusts. It was also noted that Alex has moved mostly westward over the last few hours, and the NHC has adjusted their landfall forecast location further south into Mexico.
Hurricane warnings still exist from Baffin Bay to the Rio Grande. The NHC has subsequently dropped the probability of TX experiencing HU-force winds to less than 5%. There is a 65% chance that Alex makes landfall as a hurricane Wednesday around 7:00 PM EST.
The last conditions update:
10:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 29
Location: 23.1°N 94.8°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Alex not quite HU-strength; 50% chance by 7PM Tuesday
June 29, 2010
Tropical Storm Alex is still not quite at hurricane strength (winds > 74 mph) according to the findings from the most recent hurricane hunter flight. Maximum sustained winds are currently being recorded at 70 mph.
The latest satellite imagery has shown some impressive convective thunderstorms building near the center of the low pressure, which may indicate the formation of a defined “eye” and further organization into hurricane strength.
Landfall is predicted to occur in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Wednesday night most likely exhibiting hurricane strength winds. The main threat from this storm will be heavy precipitation over the region, along with mild-to-moderate storm surge. A 5% chance of observed storm surge > 5 feet is predicted from Corpus Christi on south, and a 40 – 50% chance of 3+ feet storm surge near South Padre Island.
The current conditions are as follows:
10:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 29
Location: 22.7°N 93.1°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 982 mb
The latest update from the NHC shows Alex reaching Hurricane strength by 1PM Tuesday afternoon. The current conditions show max sustained winds at 60 mph, with higher gusts observed. The pressure has fallen to 990 mb.
The forecast models are showing signs of a building ridge to the north of Alex, which could steer the storm to the west / northwest over the next few days. The position and strength of the potential ridge will be key when determining Alex’s eventual landfall.
The next NHC update will be available at 11PM EST.
93L or Alex? Ensemble Radar for Gulf Oil Observations
June 24, 2010
System Invest 93L continues to dump heavy rains over Haiti and Cuba today, as the NHC watches closely to see if the conditions improve (worsen) for tropical depression development.
The NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of becoming a named storm, but only a 10% chance of ever reaching hurricane strength. There seems to be some model disagreement on whether a shear environment to the North will move away, or begin to affect the system. Additionally, the positive formation factors (upper level outflow and mid-level vorticity) should favor the system over the next 48 hours.
It also remains to be seen on the possible effects of passing over land.
Deepwater Horizon Oil SPill
NOAA has utilized their bevy of satellites to develop an Experimental Marine Pollution Surveillance Report (EMPSR). You can really get a sense of the extent of the oil slick from the imagery.
HU: How the Analog seasons compare
June 18, 2010
National Geographic recently published a review of the current SST, ENSO, and Wind Shear conditions in comparison to the record-setting 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 2005 has been cited in a number of forecasts including the K-G forecast, as well as Bastardi/Accuweather. K-G also identify 1958, 1966, and 1969 as comparable analog years.
1958 saw 10 named storms, with the first occurring on June 15th. 1966 counted 12 storms with Alma being named on June 6th. Alma is also the earliest landfalling hurricane on record. 1969, famous for Camille’s landfall in the Gulf, counted 13 named storms, with the first forming July 23rd. And the famous season of 2005 designated Arlene on June 8th.
The map below from NOAA’s Coastal Services Center shows all June Named Storms from 1950 – 2009.
While Invest 92L lingers over the Leeward islands, we are already “behind” schedule to the identified peer analog seasons. 2004, and its four landfalling hurricanes (Charlie, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne), did not name Alex until July 31.
NFIP to cover damage from hurricane-driven oil
June 10, 2010
From National Underwriter Magazine;
The National Flood Insurance Program will pay claims for damage to homes and contents from oil driven ashore during hurricanes, its officials have announced.
In a statement, Rachel Racusen, press secretary to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which runs the flood program, said, “The mixing of oil and other pollutants in flood water is not unusual during a storm.”
Image via LA Times
May Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies at record levels
As mentioned on Dr. Masters WunderBlog, May SST anomalies are at record values; a whopping 1.51° C above average. However the Bermuda High is forecasted to strengthen over the next few weeks, and should regulate temperatures “above average” levels rather than record levels.
2010 Season “Officially” Underway
June 1, 2010
Today, June 1, marks the official start of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
Early forecasts from major (and minor) research groups are pointing to a very active season, with values ranging in the mid-to-high teens for number of named storms, 10 of which will reach hurricane status, and as high as 7 predicted to reach intense strength (> category 3). NOAA’s seasonal forecast even mentions the possibility of this season being “hyperactive” (>175% of the mean). The mean season averages are 9.6 names storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes.
The high values are due to two main hurricane seasonal factors falling into place. The first of which is the rapid deterioration of El Nino conditions, and a transition to La Nina. The majority of the dynamic models show conditions moving in the direction of neutral – to – La Nina in the June/July/August time period.
The second factor is the observation of significantly higher Sea Surface Temperatures in the “Main Development Region” (MDR) (9°N – 21.5°N in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea).
It is obvious that a great amount of focus will be shifted towards the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard as the tropical season matures in the coming weeks. After a very quiet 2009 season with 9 names storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 IH, and very little loss costs, it is important to keep in mind that it only takes 1 landfall to muddy the situation. Also it is important to note that while some groups do provide statistical probabilities into landfall location, the forecasted numbers mentioned above are not indicative of such.
Links to Forecasts
UK Met Office (released mid-June)
Towers Watson will be closely watching the eastern seas as the season continues to provide necessary information and education during the ongoing season. We will be continuing to customize our site, Towers Watson Catastrophe Convergence Zone, to best fit our client’s needs as the season progresses.
We invite you to share your thoughts and open a dialogue on the information shared, via the comments tool at the bottom of the blog, or via email to one of our cat risk management specialists.
Check back often for updates, use the WordPress features to alert you to new posts via RSS aggregating, or email notices.
2010 Hurricane Season: Slight Up-tick
February 5, 2010
After a quiet 2009 atlantic tropical season, all focus now points towards the 2010 season, which officially begins June 1.
Klotzbach and Gray have already released their early season forecast, calling for 11 – 16 named storms, of which 6 – 8 will form into hurricanes, and 3 – 5 which will reach intense status (category 3+). This indicates a slightly above “average” season. K/G is observing slightly higher SST’s forecasted for the beginning of the tropical season, along with a subsidence of the current moderate/significant El Niño conditions as we move to the hurricane season (though some of the CPC evaluations suggest a chance that it persists through the end of spring).
The Weather Research Center has also released their early forecast, calling for 8 named storms, and 5 hurricanes. WRC additionally forecasts a 90% chance of landfall in Western Florida, along with a 70% chance of landfall in Eastern Florida.
Check the Towers Watson Hurricane Blog (formerly Towers Perrin Hurricane Blog) for updated seasonal forecast info, headlines from the 2010 National Hurricane Conference, and public articles of interest.
Hurricane Ida making landfall in the U.S.
Ida reorganizes, early Tuesday landfall, heavy precip expected
November 9, 2009
Tropical Storm Ida is currently just below hurricane strength, with recorded sustained winds at 70 mph. Landfall is expected overnight, and rain bands north of the system are already affecting the Gulf Coast.
Earlier today, the system showed strong signs of weakening and transition due to moderate shear and cooler water temperatures along with some dry air entrainment. However, an afternoon burst of convection near the eye has allowed Ida to maintain strength, and the NHC forecasters expect the system to remain tropical in its characteristics overnight.
Post landfall, Ida will move sharply to the east as an extratropical system. The main threat from Ida will be flooding and potential severe thunderstorm activity inland as the moderate shear will feed convective aspects along with energy associated with the transition. Coastal regions are already preparing for potential flooding.
We will continue to monitor the system as it makes landfall.
