Atlantic Forecast Accuracy
July 2, 2009
Status Update
It’s been quiet thus far after 1 month in the Atlantic. Maybe due to the onset of El Nino? The latest from the Climate Prediction Center indicates that we are moving that direction.
The latest report from researcher Dr. Amato Evan indicates that the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) isn’t to blame. The predicted dust levels over the African Sahel region from his experimental methods are below average due to plentiful precipitation and subsequent vegetation. Values predicted are similar to those observed last year. Record lows of dust were reported in the extemely active 2005 Season.
Forecast Accuracy
Now that the major forecasts are out, the next question is “Who should we listen to”? Each forecasting group has experienced varied success in recent years. The image below indicates the actual number of observed named storms, and the May/June predictions from Klotzbach-Gray, Tropical Storm Risk, and NOAA.
These forecasts are indicative of the pure number of tropical cyclone formations, and are not indicative of landfall counts.
Forecasted and Observed Atlantic Named Storms from Klotzbach-Gray, Tropical Storm Risk, and NOAA
