Ida reorganizes, early Tuesday landfall, heavy precip expected
November 9, 2009
Tropical Storm Ida is currently just below hurricane strength, with recorded sustained winds at 70 mph. Landfall is expected overnight, and rain bands north of the system are already affecting the Gulf Coast.
Earlier today, the system showed strong signs of weakening and transition due to moderate shear and cooler water temperatures along with some dry air entrainment. However, an afternoon burst of convection near the eye has allowed Ida to maintain strength, and the NHC forecasters expect the system to remain tropical in its characteristics overnight.
Post landfall, Ida will move sharply to the east as an extratropical system. The main threat from Ida will be flooding and potential severe thunderstorm activity inland as the moderate shear will feed convective aspects along with energy associated with the transition. Coastal regions are already preparing for potential flooding.
We will continue to monitor the system as it makes landfall.
Ida heads towards Gulf Coast: Tuesday morning Landfall expected
November 9, 2009
The NHC is predicting a Tuesday morning landfall for Hurricane Ida somewhere between the Mobile area and the Florida Panhandle. The most recent analysis (4:00 AM CST) shows roughly an equal chance of Ida making landfall as a Cat-1 or as a Tropical Storm.
Ida has become quite interesting in the last 6 hours. The system has moved into an area of increased shear and is being steered by a high pressure system over the North Carolina coast, and the exact landfall of Ida will be determined by the path this High takes. Because of the high, and interaction with increased shear, Ida will take a sharp turn to the east in the near future. The models seem to agree that this will occur post-landfall.
Additionally, Ida will continue to experience cooler waters as it nears the coast. This factor, along with a recent influx of dry air, has caused a significant amount of disorganization to the structure. The latest satellite imagery shows most of the heavy convection to the north of the center, just off the coast of AL and FL.
However, new imagery shows two new convective “flares” to the east and west of the central low pressure. Analysts are now debating whether Ida is going through a transition to Extratropical, or if it is simply reorganizing prior to landfall (which would support the NHC forecasts).
We will continue to monitor the system as the day goes on.
