Ida heads towards Gulf Coast: Tuesday morning Landfall expected
November 9, 2009
The NHC is predicting a Tuesday morning landfall for Hurricane Ida somewhere between the Mobile area and the Florida Panhandle. The most recent analysis (4:00 AM CST) shows roughly an equal chance of Ida making landfall as a Cat-1 or as a Tropical Storm.
Ida has become quite interesting in the last 6 hours. The system has moved into an area of increased shear and is being steered by a high pressure system over the North Carolina coast, and the exact landfall of Ida will be determined by the path this High takes. Because of the high, and interaction with increased shear, Ida will take a sharp turn to the east in the near future. The models seem to agree that this will occur post-landfall.
Additionally, Ida will continue to experience cooler waters as it nears the coast. This factor, along with a recent influx of dry air, has caused a significant amount of disorganization to the structure. The latest satellite imagery shows most of the heavy convection to the north of the center, just off the coast of AL and FL.
However, new imagery shows two new convective “flares” to the east and west of the central low pressure. Analysts are now debating whether Ida is going through a transition to Extratropical, or if it is simply reorganizing prior to landfall (which would support the NHC forecasts).
We will continue to monitor the system as the day goes on.
