HU: How the Analog seasons compare
June 18, 2010
National Geographic recently published a review of the current SST, ENSO, and Wind Shear conditions in comparison to the record-setting 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 2005 has been cited in a number of forecasts including the K-G forecast, as well as Bastardi/Accuweather. K-G also identify 1958, 1966, and 1969 as comparable analog years.
1958 saw 10 named storms, with the first occurring on June 15th. 1966 counted 12 storms with Alma being named on June 6th. Alma is also the earliest landfalling hurricane on record. 1969, famous for Camille’s landfall in the Gulf, counted 13 named storms, with the first forming July 23rd. And the famous season of 2005 designated Arlene on June 8th.
The map below from NOAA’s Coastal Services Center shows all June Named Storms from 1950 – 2009.
While Invest 92L lingers over the Leeward islands, we are already “behind” schedule to the identified peer analog seasons. 2004, and its four landfalling hurricanes (Charlie, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne), did not name Alex until July 31.
