Ida reorganizes, early Tuesday landfall, heavy precip expected
November 9, 2009
Tropical Storm Ida is currently just below hurricane strength, with recorded sustained winds at 70 mph. Landfall is expected overnight, and rain bands north of the system are already affecting the Gulf Coast.
Earlier today, the system showed strong signs of weakening and transition due to moderate shear and cooler water temperatures along with some dry air entrainment. However, an afternoon burst of convection near the eye has allowed Ida to maintain strength, and the NHC forecasters expect the system to remain tropical in its characteristics overnight.
Post landfall, Ida will move sharply to the east as an extratropical system. The main threat from Ida will be flooding and potential severe thunderstorm activity inland as the moderate shear will feed convective aspects along with energy associated with the transition. Coastal regions are already preparing for potential flooding.
We will continue to monitor the system as it makes landfall.
Ida heads towards Gulf Coast: Tuesday morning Landfall expected
November 9, 2009
The NHC is predicting a Tuesday morning landfall for Hurricane Ida somewhere between the Mobile area and the Florida Panhandle. The most recent analysis (4:00 AM CST) shows roughly an equal chance of Ida making landfall as a Cat-1 or as a Tropical Storm.
Ida has become quite interesting in the last 6 hours. The system has moved into an area of increased shear and is being steered by a high pressure system over the North Carolina coast, and the exact landfall of Ida will be determined by the path this High takes. Because of the high, and interaction with increased shear, Ida will take a sharp turn to the east in the near future. The models seem to agree that this will occur post-landfall.
Additionally, Ida will continue to experience cooler waters as it nears the coast. This factor, along with a recent influx of dry air, has caused a significant amount of disorganization to the structure. The latest satellite imagery shows most of the heavy convection to the north of the center, just off the coast of AL and FL.
However, new imagery shows two new convective “flares” to the east and west of the central low pressure. Analysts are now debating whether Ida is going through a transition to Extratropical, or if it is simply reorganizing prior to landfall (which would support the NHC forecasts).
We will continue to monitor the system as the day goes on.
November Hurricane Activity
October 27, 2009
The “official” 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season is now winding down with 1 week and 1 month remaining until November 30. While uncommon, the southeast United States has experienced multiple November landfalls from tropical systems in the past.
The largest event occurred on November 21, 1985, when Hurricane Kate made landfall in the Florida Panhandle as a category-2 storm. The 1985 PCS estimates totalled $77 million dollars. This equates to $154 million if adjusted for inflation. The i-CAT damage estimator, which accounts for increases in inflation, exposure growth, and property values, estimates 2009 damage at $1.220 billion (includes non-PCS losses).
November Atlantic Tropical Activity (NOAA)
The 2009 season currently has recorded 8 Named Storms, 2 of which reached hurricane strength, and both which reached intense hurricane strength (>111 mph winds). These values are below most estimates from the forecasting experts. Only Claudette made landfall, as a moderate Tropical Storm.
Globally, Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is running at low levels not seen in 30 years. The North Atlantic ACE value is 45% of the annual average (through 10/31).
Erika 5th storm of 2009 season
September 2, 2009
On September 1st at 5:00 PM EST, the 5th Tropical System of 2009, Erika, formed north of the Leeward Islands.
Erika is currently (as of 2:00 PM EST 9/2/09) exhibiting sustained winds of 40 mph and is moving West at 10 mph.
The NHC is forecasting Erika to remain a Tropical Storm thru Saturday morning. The models then have the system being affected by 20- 25 knot wind shear, and then it gets interesting. Some models show the system surviving the shear and quickly intensifying in the warm waters. Others, including the NHC, show a significant chance of dissipation, tropical depression strength, or sustaining tropical storm strength.
We will continue to monitor the situation as needed over the holiday weekend.
Unusual Danny continues to gain steam
August 27, 2009
Tropical Storm Danny continues to strengthen with sustained winds up to 60 mph as of 5:00 AM Thursday morning. Danny is displaying some odd wind fields, with the strongest winds being observed well North and East of the central low.
Satellite imagery indicates heavy convection in this area, with good counter-clockwise flow at the upper levels in the NE and NW. There is still no clear central rotation at the lower levels.
Despite the odd current configuration, the NHC is still forecasting Danny to reach hurricane status early Saturday morning east of the Outer Banks
The system will then increase in forward speed as it turns north and encounters a strong cold front over the Eastern US.
JSL Satellite Image -click for loop-
Bill Makes the Turn as a Strong Cat-3
August 20, 2009
Hurricane Bill is forecasted to track NW over the next 24 hours (early Friday morning), with a slight northward turn in the next 48 hours while maintaining sustained winds in excess of 111 mph (Cat-3).
The current National Hurricane Center’s 3-day forecast has Bill approximately 360 miles due-East of Delaware by early Sunday morning. However the system is forecasted to remain a category 3 storm through until Sunday where it will weaken due to cooler waters and increased shear velocity.
The forecast models are showing disagreement on where Bill will track in the coming days. Though most agree that Cape Cod will experience weak-to-tropical storm force (35+ mph) sustained winds over the weekend. Significant wave activity is also expected all along the Eastern Seaboard due to Bill’s immense size and strength.
The image below shows the AOML satellite-derived wind speeds as of 930 EST this morning. The HU strength wind radius has shrunk slightly, but should increase again today as the surrounding air warms.
AOML 8/20/09 1330 UTC Satellite Derived Winds
We will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as necessary.
Claudette lands softly; Bill still Looming
August 17, 2009
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall overnight with little affect on the Florida panhandle and Alabama coast. Sustained winds of 48 mph were recorded, with slightly higher gusts. The National Weather Service has not reported any major damage or flooding.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Bill continues to spin in the Atlantic just east of the Antilles. The NHC is forecasting winds to reach 110 knots (SS-3) by Thursday night. The forecast models have shifted the expected track slightly W/NW from yesterday’s runs.
Bill will be closely observed over the next few days to monitor forecast track and intensification.
