2010 Season “Officially” Underway
June 1, 2010
Today, June 1, marks the official start of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
Early forecasts from major (and minor) research groups are pointing to a very active season, with values ranging in the mid-to-high teens for number of named storms, 10 of which will reach hurricane status, and as high as 7 predicted to reach intense strength (> category 3). NOAA’s seasonal forecast even mentions the possibility of this season being “hyperactive” (>175% of the mean). The mean season averages are 9.6 names storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes.
The high values are due to two main hurricane seasonal factors falling into place. The first of which is the rapid deterioration of El Nino conditions, and a transition to La Nina. The majority of the dynamic models show conditions moving in the direction of neutral – to – La Nina in the June/July/August time period.
The second factor is the observation of significantly higher Sea Surface Temperatures in the “Main Development Region” (MDR) (9°N – 21.5°N in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea).
It is obvious that a great amount of focus will be shifted towards the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard as the tropical season matures in the coming weeks. After a very quiet 2009 season with 9 names storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 IH, and very little loss costs, it is important to keep in mind that it only takes 1 landfall to muddy the situation. Also it is important to note that while some groups do provide statistical probabilities into landfall location, the forecasted numbers mentioned above are not indicative of such.
Links to Forecasts
UK Met Office (released mid-June)
Towers Watson will be closely watching the eastern seas as the season continues to provide necessary information and education during the ongoing season. We will be continuing to customize our site, Towers Watson Catastrophe Convergence Zone, to best fit our client’s needs as the season progresses.
We invite you to share your thoughts and open a dialogue on the information shared, via the comments tool at the bottom of the blog, or via email to one of our cat risk management specialists.
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