2010 Hurricane Season: Slight Up-tick
February 5, 2010
After a quiet 2009 atlantic tropical season, all focus now points towards the 2010 season, which officially begins June 1.
Klotzbach and Gray have already released their early season forecast, calling for 11 – 16 named storms, of which 6 – 8 will form into hurricanes, and 3 – 5 which will reach intense status (category 3+). This indicates a slightly above “average” season. K/G is observing slightly higher SST’s forecasted for the beginning of the tropical season, along with a subsidence of the current moderate/significant El Niño conditions as we move to the hurricane season (though some of the CPC evaluations suggest a chance that it persists through the end of spring).
The Weather Research Center has also released their early forecast, calling for 8 named storms, and 5 hurricanes. WRC additionally forecasts a 90% chance of landfall in Western Florida, along with a 70% chance of landfall in Eastern Florida.
Check the Towers Watson Hurricane Blog (formerly Towers Perrin Hurricane Blog) for updated seasonal forecast info, headlines from the 2010 National Hurricane Conference, and public articles of interest.
Hurricane Ida making landfall in the U.S.
November Hurricane Activity
October 27, 2009
The “official” 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season is now winding down with 1 week and 1 month remaining until November 30. While uncommon, the southeast United States has experienced multiple November landfalls from tropical systems in the past.
The largest event occurred on November 21, 1985, when Hurricane Kate made landfall in the Florida Panhandle as a category-2 storm. The 1985 PCS estimates totalled $77 million dollars. This equates to $154 million if adjusted for inflation. The i-CAT damage estimator, which accounts for increases in inflation, exposure growth, and property values, estimates 2009 damage at $1.220 billion (includes non-PCS losses).
November Atlantic Tropical Activity (NOAA)
The 2009 season currently has recorded 8 Named Storms, 2 of which reached hurricane strength, and both which reached intense hurricane strength (>111 mph winds). These values are below most estimates from the forecasting experts. Only Claudette made landfall, as a moderate Tropical Storm.
Globally, Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is running at low levels not seen in 30 years. The North Atlantic ACE value is 45% of the annual average (through 10/31).
Atlantic Forecast Accuracy
July 2, 2009
Status Update
It’s been quiet thus far after 1 month in the Atlantic. Maybe due to the onset of El Nino? The latest from the Climate Prediction Center indicates that we are moving that direction.
The latest report from researcher Dr. Amato Evan indicates that the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) isn’t to blame. The predicted dust levels over the African Sahel region from his experimental methods are below average due to plentiful precipitation and subsequent vegetation. Values predicted are similar to those observed last year. Record lows of dust were reported in the extemely active 2005 Season.
Forecast Accuracy
Now that the major forecasts are out, the next question is “Who should we listen to”? Each forecasting group has experienced varied success in recent years. The image below indicates the actual number of observed named storms, and the May/June predictions from Klotzbach-Gray, Tropical Storm Risk, and NOAA.
These forecasts are indicative of the pure number of tropical cyclone formations, and are not indicative of landfall counts.
Forecasted and Observed Atlantic Named Storms from Klotzbach-Gray, Tropical Storm Risk, and NOAA
UK Met Office Issues 2009 North Atlantic Forecast
June 18, 2009
The UK Met Office has released their 2009 July–November North Atlantic Tropical Storm Forecast, calling for 3 – 8 storms, with 6 being the most likely count. The M.O. was highly accurate last year, predicting between 10 and 20 named storms, with 15 being most likely.
For the first time, they have also released an ACE forecast (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for the North Atlantic. ACE values are predicted to be between 40 and 80, with the most likely value of 60. The long term ACE average is 131.
You can find a full description of the 2009 forecast values, past forecast verification, and documented methodology at:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/northatlantic.html
The Met Office is U.K.’s equivalent of NOAA; providing weather and climate information to the public and private sector.
- Zack Schmiesing – Towers Perrin
