November Hurricane Activity
October 27, 2009
The “official” 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season is now winding down with 1 week and 1 month remaining until November 30. While uncommon, the southeast United States has experienced multiple November landfalls from tropical systems in the past.
The largest event occurred on November 21, 1985, when Hurricane Kate made landfall in the Florida Panhandle as a category-2 storm. The 1985 PCS estimates totalled $77 million dollars. This equates to $154 million if adjusted for inflation. The i-CAT damage estimator, which accounts for increases in inflation, exposure growth, and property values, estimates 2009 damage at $1.220 billion (includes non-PCS losses).
November Atlantic Tropical Activity (NOAA)
The 2009 season currently has recorded 8 Named Storms, 2 of which reached hurricane strength, and both which reached intense hurricane strength (>111 mph winds). These values are below most estimates from the forecasting experts. Only Claudette made landfall, as a moderate Tropical Storm.
Globally, Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is running at low levels not seen in 30 years. The North Atlantic ACE value is 45% of the annual average (through 10/31).
Atlantic Forecast Accuracy
July 2, 2009
Status Update
It’s been quiet thus far after 1 month in the Atlantic. Maybe due to the onset of El Nino? The latest from the Climate Prediction Center indicates that we are moving that direction.
The latest report from researcher Dr. Amato Evan indicates that the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) isn’t to blame. The predicted dust levels over the African Sahel region from his experimental methods are below average due to plentiful precipitation and subsequent vegetation. Values predicted are similar to those observed last year. Record lows of dust were reported in the extemely active 2005 Season.
Forecast Accuracy
Now that the major forecasts are out, the next question is “Who should we listen to”? Each forecasting group has experienced varied success in recent years. The image below indicates the actual number of observed named storms, and the May/June predictions from Klotzbach-Gray, Tropical Storm Risk, and NOAA.
These forecasts are indicative of the pure number of tropical cyclone formations, and are not indicative of landfall counts.
Forecasted and Observed Atlantic Named Storms from Klotzbach-Gray, Tropical Storm Risk, and NOAA
Welcome, and a look back
May 29, 2009
With the effects of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season still fresh on many minds, the 2009 season is already upon us.
Last year brought the Atlantic Basin 16 named storms, eight of which reached hurricane status and five that were classified as major hurricanes. Property Claim Services (PCS) estimated personal, commercial and auto insured losses due to tropical activity at $14.5 billion, driven notably by Hurricane Ike, which made landfall in Galveston, Texas, early in the morning on September 13.
The damage in Texas and Louisiana, coupled with unusual damaging winds in the Midwest associated with Ike’s remnants, resulted in an estimated $11.7 billion in insured losses. Total loss estimates of the costliest U.S. hurricanes on record place Ike at number 4 of all time.
To help you better understand the risk to tropical activity and provide real-time information and educational insight, Towers Perrin has expanded our hurricane Web site for the 2009 season. Towers Perrin’s Hurricane Center gives you one site to gather vital storm information to help make effective decisions as the systems approach. Additionally, we provide links to expert analysis and opinion on developing systems to enhance your knowledge of hurricane science.
We welcome your comments and questions!
- Zack Schmiesing, Towers Perrin
